The Gaokao and Chinese Students’ Overseas Study: A 20-Year Longitudinal Analysis of Push Dynamics, Mobility Trends, and Educational Inequality (2005–2025)

Abstract

This study examines the role of the Gaokao system in shaping Chinese students’ decisions to study abroad and its implications for educational inequality over the period 2005–2025. Adopting a mixed-methods approach, the research integrates longitudinal secondary data with semi-structured interviews to provide both macro-level trend analysis and micro-level insights. Grounded in Push–Pull Theory, the Gaokao is conceptualized as a dynamic institutional push factor interacting with broader socioeconomic and global contexts.
The findings indicate that the influence of the Gaokao evolves across three distinct phases: a reactive “fallback” mechanism in the early stage (2005–2009), a more proactive “parallel pathway” during the expansion phase (2010–2017), and a moderated, diversified influence within increasingly strategic decision-making in the recent period (2018–2025). Qualitative evidence further suggests a shift from exam avoidance toward long-term educational planning among students and families.
Regarding inequality, the study finds that while the Gaokao maintains a meritocratic logic within the domestic system, its interaction with unequal access to international education contributes to a stratified dual-track structure. Although recent reforms and diversification trends have partially mitigated disparities, structural inequalities remain evident.
By integrating longitudinal and qualitative perspectives, this study extends Push–Pull Theory and offers a more dynamic understanding of high-stakes examinations in global student mobility.