The Double Burden of Climate Variability and Conflict: Assessing Smallholder Food Security and Resilience Strategies in Mubi North, Nigeria.

Abstract

This study examines the effects of climate change and armed banditry on household food security, while accounting for the role of livelihood characteristics and coping responses. Using primary data from a 2025 field survey, a Food Security Index was constructed through Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) was applied to assess causal relationships, and descriptive analysis was used to document household coping strategies. The PCA results indicate that the first principal component explains 56.8% of the total variation in food security indicators, with a cumulative explained variance of 71.1%, suggesting that meal frequency, dietary diversity, perceived food sufficiency, food expenditure share, and months of food shortage are robust measures of household food security. SEM results reveal that climate change and banditry have significant and negative effects on food security, while climate change also significantly increases the incidence of banditry. In contrast, farm size and off-farm income positively and significantly enhance household food security. The interaction effect between climate change and banditry further exacerbates food insecurity, highlighting their reinforcing impact. The model demonstrates an acceptable fit, confirming the reliability of the estimated relationships. Descriptive findings show that households respond to food insecurity through multiple coping strategies, including crop diversification, reduced meal frequency, engagement in off-farm employment, sale of livestock assets, participation in community savings groups, and temporary migration. Overall, the findings underscore the compounded threat posed by climate change and insecurity to food security, while emphasizing the importance of livelihood diversification and income-enhancing strategies in building household resilience. The study provides evidence-based insights to inform integrated policies targeting climate adaptation, rural security, and sustainable livelihood support.