Socioeconomic Drivers of Household Tree-Cutting in Talakag, Bukidnon: Evidence from a Forest Frontier Municipality in the Philippines

Abstract

Deforestation remains a significant environmental concern in the Philippines, particularly in forest frontier municipalities where agricultural expansion and settlement growth interact with remaining forest landscapes. This study examines the socioeconomic determinants of household tree-cutting behavior in Talakag, Bukidnon. Primary data were collected from 103 rural households in Barangays Indulang and Dominorog through a structured survey conducted between December 2022 and February 2023. Descriptive statistics indicate that households reported an average of 539.78 or 540 trees cut, reflecting substantial variation in forest-use practices. To estimate the determinants of tree-cutting behavior, a Poisson regression model was applied, complemented by Generalized Linear Modeling (GLM) and Negative Binomial specifications to assess robustness. The results show that agricultural expansion is associated with approximately 31.6% higher expected tree-cutting counts, while migration is associated with a 22.1% increase and infrastructure development with a 10.5% increase, holding other factors constant. Years of land occupation also exhibit a positive and statistically significant association with tree-cutting behavior. In contrast, education, sex, and household timber extraction are not statistically significant predictors. Diagnostic tests confirm that the Poisson specification provides a good model fit (Pseudo R² = 0.653) with no evidence of overdispersion and consistent results across alternative count-data models. However, given the cross-sectional nature of the data and the potential endogeneity of key variables, the estimated relationships were interpreted as conditional associations rather than causal effects. The findings suggest that deforestation in Talakag is closely associated with agricultural land expansion and settlement dynamics in forest frontier areas, highlighting the importance of integrated forest governance, sustainable land-use planning, and agroforestry systems to reduce pressure on forest resources in upland communities.