Great Power Competition between China and the United States: A Power Transition and Neorealist Analysis

Abstract

The intensification of great power competition (GPC) between the United States and China marks a systemic transformation in international politics. This article applies Power Transition Theory (PTT) and Neorealism to explain the structural drivers, strategic behaviors, and potential trajectories of Sino–American rivalry. While PTT explains the timing and danger of systemic conflict as power parity approaches, Neorealism elucidates balancing behavior, alliance formation, military modernization, and security dilemmas. The article argues that contemporary U.S.–China competition is structurally embedded, multidimensional, and likely to persist over decades. Although nuclear deterrence and economic interdependence reduce the probability of total war, flashpoints—particularly Taiwan and technological rivalry—present serious escalation risks.