Fragility in Motion: Comparative Conflict Systems and External Pressures in the Horn of Africa

Abstract

The Horn of Africa is encompassing Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, and Uganda which constitutes one of the world’s most fragile and conflict affected regions. This paper develops an integrated conflict systems framework that maps cascading interactions among six drivers of regional fragility: climate stress, governance fragility, resource competition, hydro-politics, recognition politics, and external intervention. Using comparative case study methodology across Somalia, Ethiopia, Sudan, and Eritrea as primary cases, the analysis traces six cascading pathways linking climate induced livelihood collapse to resource competition, governance overload, hydro-political failure, recognition disputes, and external intervention. An expanded hydro-politics analysis examines the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute, Somalia’s dependence on the Shabelle and Jubba rivers, the absence of Ethiopia Somalia water agreements, the Baardhere Dam dispute, and the 2021 ICJ Somalia Kenya maritime ruling within the framework of international water law. The paper introduces an original composite Horn of Africa Fragility Index and concludes with policy recommendations addressing governance, climate adaptation, transboundary water cooperation, sovereignty disputes, and the management of external intervention.