Effect of Non Custodial Sentencing on Recidivism Rates at Kibera Probation Station, Nairobi City County, Kenya

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of non custodial sentencing on recidivism rates at Kibera Probation Station, Nairobi City County, Kenya. Despite a growing shift toward community based sanctions, recidivism remains high nationally. A descriptive mixed methods design was used, drawing quantitative and qualitative data from 148 respondents (offenders, probation officers, and judicial officers) selected by stratified random sampling from a population of 238. Findings reveal that unemployment, drug abuse, stigma, and limited supervision resources remain central to re offending. By adding a longitudinal lens, this revised analysis estimates that without structured post sentence follow up, approximately 42 percent of probationers relapse within 12–24 months. Comparative review with custodial offenders from Nairobi West Prison indicates that those completing non custodial terms were 27 percent less likely to re offend when supported through reintegration programs. The study concludes that non custodial sentencing yields social and economic returns but only when embedded in a strategic, community driven correctional framework.