Nexus between Population Growth and Poverty Incidence in Nigeria (1990-2025)

Abstract

Persistently high poverty levels, driven by inflation, weak labour market performance, regional inequalities, and limited social safety nets, revealed a widening gap between economic growth and societal welfare in Nigeria. Specifically, the research evaluated the effects of fertility rate, birth rate, population growth rate, income inequality, and per capita income on poverty levels. Employing a long-run econometric model, the analysis revealed that approximately 81.5% of the variations in Nigeria’s poverty rate are jointly explained by population growth rate, fertility rate and birth rate as indicated by an R-square value of 0.815. The overall significance of the model was confirmed by an F-statistic of 1.144 and a probability value of 0.000, while the Durbin-Watson statistic of 1.80 indicated the absence of serial correlation in the residuals. The findings showed that the fertility rate has a statistically significant negative effect on poverty, suggesting that under specific socio-economic contexts, higher fertility may be associated with informal labour contributions and social safety structures that reduce household poverty. Conversely, birth rate exerted a positive and significant impact on poverty, aligning with the conventional view that high birth rates increase dependency burdens and strain limited resources. Population growth rate, although only marginally significant, also showed a negative relationship with poverty, hinting at its potential to reduce poverty if effectively harnessed through inclusive development policies. Meanwhile, income inequality and per capita income both revealed statistically insignificant effects on poverty in the long run, suggesting that structural and demographic factors may have more pronounced influence than aggregate income levels. These results underscored the complex and sometimes counter - intuitive nature of demographic - economic interactions in Nigeria. Thus, the paper recommended that poverty alleviation strategies incorporate demographic planning, equitable distribution of resources, and targeted social interventions to effectively address the root causes of poverty in Nigeria.