Actuarial Vulnerabilities in Social Protection Systems of Emerging Economies: A Dual Systematic Review of Pension Sustainability and Commuting Hazard Liabilities

Abstract

Social protection systems in emerging and middle-income economies are confronting structural actuarial vulnerabilities driven by rapid demographic transition, labour market informality, and evolving occupational risk patterns. This paper develops an integrated research framework to examine two interrelated and financial material liabilities within statutory social insurance schemes: (i) the long-term sustainability and adequacy of survivors’ and invalidity pension programs under accelerated population ageing and shrinking contributor bases, and (ii) the rising actuarial burden of commuting-related occupational accidents characterised by high tail-risk exposure.