Weathering Climate Change: Climatic and Structural Determinants of Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Nigeria using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and annual time series data spanning from 1986 to 2024. It examines the effects of key climatic variables (average temperature, rainfall, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions) alongside structural and institutional factors such as fertilizer use, literacy rate, and mechanization (tractors per 100 sq. km). The results reveal that rainfall has a significant and positive long-run effect on agricultural productivity, underscoring the sector’s dependence on consistent precipitation. However, short-run rainfall variability negatively affects productivity, likely due to disruptions in planting and harvesting cycles. While temperature and CO₂ emissions are negatively signed, their long-run effects are statistically insignificant, suggesting possible adaptive responses or time-lagged impacts. Notably, fertilizer use exhibits a significant negative long-run relationship with productivity, indicating inefficiencies in application or usage. In contrast, mechanization shows a strong and positive lagged short-run impact, highlighting its transformative potential when effectively utilized. Literacy rate, however, does not exert a significant influence, pointing to institutional and implementation challenges. The study recommends integrated policies that include investment in irrigation infrastructure, reform of fertilizer distribution systems, expansion of mechanization access, and promotion of climate-smart agriculture. By addressing structural constraints and enhancing institutional support, Nigeria can build resilience in its agricultural sector and sustainably navigate the growing threats posed by climate change.