Market and Policy Dynamics in Forecasting Fuel Cell Vehicle Adoption in Malaysia: The Role of Technology Readiness, Infrastructure Development, and Policy Intervention

Abstract

This study examines the adoption of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) in Malaysia in line with the National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR) and Hydrogen Economy and Technology Roadmap (HETR). Despite strong policy direction, FCV adoption remains low due to high costs, limited hydrogen infrastructure, and low market readiness. Forecasting FCV growth is also challenging due to limited and incomplete local data.
To address this, this study develops a forecasting framework combining regression analysis and logistic growth modelling. Data from 2019 to 2023, including electric vehicle (EV) sales, EV charging infrastructure, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and sustainable and responsible investment (SRI) are used as proxy indicators. Missing data are handled using imputation techniques to improve reliability.
Two scenarios are analysed: a market-driven model and a policy-driven model. The market-driven scenario shows slow adoption, reaching only 288 FCVs by 2070. In contrast, the policy-driven scenario, which includes government support such as infrastructure expansion, incentives, and fleet conversion, shows a significant increase to 4,259 FCVs over the same period.
The results show that infrastructure availability and cost are the main factors influencing FCV adoption, while economic indicators and investment trends have a smaller impact. Overall, the findings suggest that without strong policy intervention, FCV adoption in Malaysia will remain limited. This study provides a practical framework to support policy and investment decisions for hydrogen mobility development.