Assessing the Effectiveness of Policing Strategies in Addressing Drug Abuse in Climate-Vulnerable Urban Areas: A Case of Budiriro Township, Harare

Abstract

Drug abuse is an escalating public security challenge in climate-vulnerable peri-urban settlements across sub-Saharan Africa, yet the effectiveness of deployed policing strategies in such contexts remains empirically under-evaluated. This study assessed the effectiveness of policing strategies in addressing drug abuse in Budiriro Township, a flood-prone, low-income suburb in south-western Harare, Zimbabwe. Grounded in Problem-Oriented Policing (POP) theory (Goldstein, 1990) and a pragmatic philosophical orientation, the research employed a descriptive mixed-methods design with a comparative component contrasting climate-stressed and relatively stable sub-localities within Budiriro Township. Structured questionnaire data were collected from 130 respondents drawn using stratified systematic random sampling from ward registers, with sample size determined using Yamane's (1967) formula applied to the verified adult population of Budiriro Township. This was complemented by 13 key informant interviews (KIIs) and 4 focus group discussions (FGDs). SPSS Version 28 facilitated Pearson correlation analysis and descriptive statistics; Braun and Clarke's (2019) six-phase thematic analysis guided qualitative interpretation. Findings reveal that reactive enforcement correlates weakly with improved community safety (r=0.29, p<0.05), a correlation that, while statistically significant, explains only 8.4% of outcome variance and should not be interpreted as evidence of meaningful causal effect. By contrast, climate-aware targeted policing yields the strongest associations with positive outcomes (r=0.74, p<0.001), explaining 54.8% of outcome variance. Climate-induced social disorganisation (r=0.74), livelihood loss (r=0.69), and flood frequency (r=0.54) all demonstrate statistically significant positive relationships with drug abuse severity (p<0.01). A convergent parallel synthesis of quantitative and qualitative findings within a unified climate-policing-drug nexus framework confirms that structural climate vulnerability mediates the relationship between policing strategy type and community safety outcomes. The study calls for integration of climate vulnerability analysis into community policing frameworks, cross-sectoral governance reform, and investment in evidence-based rehabilitation pathways.